Article 6 # 4'2025

© Sergii Illiash, PhD, Candidate of Technical Sciences, Head of the Center,
ORCID: 0000-0002-3001-8012,
e-mail: illiash.s@ukr.net;
© Tetiana Stasiuk, Head of the Department,
ORCID: 0000-0001-5921-4503,
e-mail: wife.stas@ukr.net
(NIDI SE)
PATTERNS OF CHANGES IN THE CONDITION OF AUTOMOBILE ROADS UNDER MODERN OPERATING CONDITIONS
DOI: 10.33868/0365-8392-2025-4-285-34-41
Abstract. Modern practices of planning road maintenance activities are increasingly based on forecasting changes in pavement condition over time. Under conditions of limited funding and growing traffic loads, scientifically substantiated determination of the timing and scope of maintenance and repair actions based on pavement deterioration models becomes particularly important. The key parameter that integrally reflects the influence of structural, climatic, and traffic-related factors is the structural capacity of the pavement structure. This paper examines the patterns of changes in the structural capacity of road pavement structures during operation. The stages of deterioration of flexible pavements are analyzed, and the relationship between the reduction in structural capacity, the development of pavement distress, deterioration of ride quality, and traffic safety conditions is established. The obtained dependencies can be used to substantiate maintenance strategies and to plan repair works.
Existing approaches to pavement condition forecasting are often based on simplified empirical models or do not adequately account for the stage-wise nature of pavement structural capacity degradation. In addition, universal models developed for other countries do not always adequately reflect the real operating conditions of Ukrainian highways, which are characterized by excessive axle loads, significant irregularity of funding, and additional destructive impacts caused by military actions and changes in traffic flow structure.
The purpose of this study is to generalize and further develop scientific approaches to modeling pavement deterioration based on the stage-wise change in pavement structural capacity, as well as to substantiate the applicability of such models for predicting the serviceability and operational condition of automobile roads under modern operating conditions.
This study is of a review nature. A systems approach was applied, which represents a set of general scientific methodological principles based on considering the objects of study as complex systems.
It was established that pavement deterioration has a clearly defined stage-wise character, in which the reduction of pavement structural capacity is the determining factor governing the development of pavement distress, the increase in the area of potholes, and the deterioration of surface evenness. The interrelation between structural capacity indicators, ride quality, and traffic safety was demonstrated. The feasibility of using combined deterioration models that integrate mechanistic–empirical and probabilistic approaches was substantiated. It was shown that the application of locally calibrated models improves the reliability of residual service life prediction for pavements.
The proposed approach to modeling pavement deterioration based on the stage-wise change in pavement structural capacity can serve as a scientific basis for decision-making in road asset management systems. Adapting deterioration models to the actual operating conditions of Ukrainian highways is a necessary prerequisite for improving the efficiency of road maintenance and the rational use of limited financial resources.
Keywords: automobile roads, road maintenance, pavement, pavement deterioration, pavement serviceability condition.
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