Article 3 #4 2020

DOI: 10.33868/0365-8392-2020-4-264-22-27
© Galina Burlakova, Candidate of Technical Sciences, Docent, e-mail:, ORCID: 0000-0000-0000-0000;
© Dmitry Ganzheev, Postgraduate Student, e-mail:, ORCID: 0000-0002-3438-0086
Priazovskyi State Technical University

Abstract. In the first part of the article, the existing problems of uncertainty in the system of operational redistribution of traffic flows were described, stochastic factors directly related to the movement of vehicles and requiring consideration in the operational management of traffic flows, as well as the features of their influence on the short-term state of the transport system were considered. A simplified classification of stochastic factors was given, algorithms for the connection of these factors with each other and with indicators that were already taken into account by the management system were given, the nature of the influence was indicated. Statistical samples of data were analyzed and the basics of methods of working with them were indicated. For the most common stochastic factors, such as the number of road accidents on the street and road networks of cities, methods for the formation of graphic materials and mathematical approximations were proposed, formulas for calculating some random variables were recommended, including using limits within the framework of the phase theory of traffic flows … The second part of the article examines the influence of weather and climatic, socio-political and other stochastic factors of a global nature on the state of the transport system. Cartograms are presented, with the help of which it is possible to establish stochastic dependences of climatic changes and changes in the ecological state on the example of Mariupol. Formulas and calculations of probabilities and levels of specific factors are indicated, examples of graphic materials are given. A detailed block diagram of identifying stochastic factors, the formation of information arrays, their analysis and supply of control signals to the operational control system is proposed for practical use. The diagram shows a clear differentiation of the primary and secondary arrays of stochastic data, and indicates their recommended connections with the operational management system of the transport process. With the help of the stated theoretical foundations, it becomes possible to increase the efficiency of the city’s transport system by optimizing the processes of operational redistribution of traffic flows on the street-road network and making changes to the processes of short-term planning.
Keywords: stochastic factors, road transport, traffic flow, transport system, transport planning, management, regulation.

1. Balakin, V. V. (2018). Formirovanie i razvitie transportnyh sistem gorodov : ucheb. posobie [Formation and development of urban transport systems: a manual]. Russia, Volgograd, Volgograd state technical university, 86.
2. Guk V. І. & Shkodovs’kij J. M. (2009). Transportnі potoki: teorіja ta її zastosuvannja v urbanіsticі : monografija [Transportation flows: theory and its application in urban science: monograph]. Ukraine, Kharkov, 231.
3. Krylatov A. Y. & Zaharov V. V. (2012). Upravlenie transportnymi potokami megapolisov [Management of traffic flows in megacities]. Russia, St. Petersburg, Flexibility and adaptability of global supply chains: collection of articles, 5, 305–310.
4. Lashhenih O. A., Kuz’kіn O. F. & Gricaj S. V. (2011). Іmovіrnіsnі і statistiko-eksperimental’nі metodi analіzu transportnih sistem : navchal’nij posіbnik [Probabilistic and statistically-experimental methods of analysis of transport systems: a manual]. Ukraine, Zaporіzhzhja, National university «Zaporizhzhia polytechnic», 420.
5. Martynova E. S. (2019). Ocenka urovnej obsluzhivanija dvizhenija transportnyh potokov na osnove nechetkih jekspertnyh sistem [Assessment of service levels of traffic flow based on fuzzy expert systems] : PhD thesis. Russia, Saratov, 203.
6. Miheeva T. I. & Miheev S. V. (2012). Modeli upravlenija transportnymi potokami v uslovijah zatora [Models of traffic control in a traffic jam]. Software products and systems, 5, 50–55.
7. Nemenko M. V., Les’ko S. A. & Zhukov D. O. (2015). Balansirovka potokov v zagruzhennyh transportnyh setjah na osnove stohasticheskoj modeli [Flow balancing in busy transport networks based on a stochastic model]. Russia, Moscow, Problems of modern informatics: Tr. 2nd youth. scientific conf., 6, 121–127.
8. Sohac’kij A. V., Romanenko E. M. & Іvanisenko I. S. (2017). Modeljuvannja lancjugovih kritichnih situacіj v shhіl’nomu transportnomu potocі [Modeling of chain critical situations in dense traffic flow]. International scientific journal «Internauka», № 14, 4, 92–96.
9. Meng Lu (2016). Evaluation of Intelligent Road Transport Systems: methods and Results. United Kingdom, London, The institution of engineering and technology, 457.
10. Pogoda i klimat : spravochno-inform. portal [Electronic resource] : [Web site]. Access mode: – Screen title.